Monday, April 9, 2012

Market Update

Here's where we are intraday and a bit longer in to the trend.

 The DIa was leading negative most of Thursday last week, there are several relative positive divergences that support the idea of backing and filling in to the gap and as mentioned that market rarely holds losses like this, this early without the HFTs causing intraday movement which they need to make money.

 Here's the longer term damage on a 15 min chart done in the recent lateral chop, although very volatile, this is leading negative (the strongest divergence on a longer timeframe. Any bounce, although it could be sharp as I've mentioned , "Volatility will continue to increase", won't change these longer term charts. I view any market strength as an opportunity to sell short in to.

 QQQ 1 min saw some earlier positive divergences, it has had trouble holding them.

 The same can be seen on the 2 min chart.

 The leading negative divergence on the 30 min chart, as mentioned, the last two bounces and particularly the last one did some major damage to the underlying trade.

 SPY 1 min with a slight relative positive divergence

 Thursday's 5 min leading negative and we see some stronger positive divergences building on the intraday chart as the SPX is sitting right around support.

 Again the longer term damage done in the lateral volatile chop puts the 15 min chart in a deep leading negative divergence. While the short term charts look like some backing and filling should take place, the longer term chart shows the damage has been done.

The NYSE Tick saw an incredible -1850 on the open, but since then has been pretty neutral, the bulk of the selling was done with limit orders on the open it appears, so the market makers/specialists probably have some stock to relieve themselves of at higher levels.

I'd expect a bounce at least intraday, we'll have to see when the negative divergences start setting in, that would be the ideal time to sell short some names.

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