Monday, April 9, 2012

BIDU Update

BIDU is another that looks like a major triangle top with a probable head fake breakout/bull trap. I have maintained the put position there as I want some short side coverage in case of an overnight surprise even and with Europe opening tomorrow, you just never know.

 Here's the suspected head fake/bull trap breakout from a large triangle, usually these are tops. BIDU gave a confirmed reversal signal after breaking out of the large triangle and looks like it is seeing continued selling in to any strength.

 The 60 min chart has gone leading negative since the breakout, the daily charts are already leading negative. I'd estimate conservatively that 80% of the time before we get a major reversal we see head fake moves like these and when they fail, they tend to fail spectacularly.

 Today's intraday action on a 2 min chart shows no confirmation at all and a leading negative position.

The 1 min is just as bad if not worse. If you are interested in BIDU and don't already have a position there (short), you may want to consider phasing in to the trade, adding a little on days like this and the rest can be added on a worsening divergence or a break below the $144 area and a move back in to or below the large triangle.

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