Monday, April 9, 2012

SPY breaking the a.m. range

Not surprisingly given the intraday positives, the lack of any reality in the news flow, a big gap and support in the area, the SPY/DIA are breaking above the morning range.

 DIA above the morning range with a slight pullback/consolidation

 The SPY looks nearly identical.

 SPY 1 min leading positive intraday divergence suggests more intraday upside and today is a perfect day for it. I suppose the bigger question will be whether the market can put together a stronger divergence for another bounce like we saw the last 2 weeks at the start of the week or if the gap is left unfilled as the market sees the intraday charts start to go negative.

 The 2 min chart isn't seeing the bleed through strength from the 1 min chart as of yet, in fact there's a small relative negative divergence there, I would think this is why we saw the consolidation above the morning range.

The green arrow shows the SPY is simply in line on an intraday basis, no positive or negative divergence here to speak of as far as 3C's move up with the SPY.

 After the deep leading negative of Thursday, the SPY on the 5 min chart is simply in line at this point, not seeing any bleed through from the 1-2 min charts, which still suggests simple intraday movement as expected.

Nothing has changed on the 15 mi chart, the leading negative divergence is pretty deep here, note how each bounce in the SPY lead to a stronger negative divergence as we travelled laterally (although volatile), 3C went from relative negative divergences around mid-March on the 15 min (the longer term charts have been in deep leading negative divergences for some time as the breadth readings would imply), the bounce toward the end of March started the stronger leading negative divergence, and the bounce last week that we anticipated from an intraday positive divergence from the previous Wed/Thursday created a much deeper leading negative divergence.

So far nothing out of the ordinary and a bit of a 'Tofu" day.

We'll take a closer look at oil and GLD shortly.

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