Monday, April 9, 2012

ES/S&P E-mini Futures Update

ES looks like what I would suspect on any intraday bounce. While I'm not saying I think the bounce is done, I am seeing negative divergences in to higher prices.

The positive 1 min divergence in ES (white) got ES moving up, however 3C is NOT confirming the move up and is showing a negative divergence like we have seen on every bounce over the last several weeks, suggesting once again, any strength in price is being used by smart money to sell in to. As market makers and specialist must take market orders and as the NFP print came on a day the market was closed and festered in retail's mind all weekend, retail obviously put in the sell orders (many probably before heading off to work) and the middle men have to accept orders to fill at market. I believe this is why the NYSE TICK was so extremely negative right on the open. The MMs and specialists are probably not keen on holding inventory at the opening levels and would be looking to sell that inventory in to any strength they can conjure up through widening the bid/ask spreads, some tactical breakouts, etc.

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