Thursday, April 19, 2012

BIDU Trade Update

I already have some coverage in BIDU by way of May $150 Puts, I would like to add a straight equity short to BIDU, the Pus are more for the failure of the head fake move, while the equity short would be for a longer term trade.


 Here is BIDU on what I have long suspected to be a head fake breakout of the large top triangle, the failure of support at the trendline should send BIDU down quickly in to the traingle and eventually below the triangle top.

 If you look at the big picture, this entire time BIDU has been above the triangle has been an excellent opportunity from a positioning and risk perspective. Sometimes, we lose sight of the big picture and become what I call, "Lost in the lines", essentially micro-managing.

 The hourly BIDU chart has warned from the start of the breakout above the triangle that it was a false move, this divergence has only grown much worse to a 60 min leading negative, which is very strong.

 The 5 min chart shows a relative positive divergence as BIDU touches the support area around $144.

There's a 2 min positive divergence as well and it appears as if BIDU is already responding to the positive divergence after having touched the support area. I will be looking to add some equity shorts in  BIDU, I'd like to do that on some strength and I will leave some room for potential upside gains, but if you look at the big picture, there's really no reason that BIDU couldn't or shouldn't be shorted in this area, intraday strength or not as we are not talking about short term options contracts.

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