Thursday, April 19, 2012

Market Upate

 DIA 5 min leading positive divergence.

 The 15 min trend in DIA since March where the top was formed, I don't think I need to draw on this chart, but it should convey the depth of trouble the market is in.


 The close up of the 15 min that has been bothersome.

 QQQ 1 min is pretty much in line, but there have been several positive divergences as price has moved lower, they seem to be accruing on the 5 min chart like the DIA.

 This is not as sharp a divergence as the DIA, but it is a positive divergence in a timeframe that would make sense with strength in to tomorrow.

 QQQ 15 min , remember tech was out of rotation until the 16th, here we have a negative divergence in the Q's, any upside will make this divergence worse.

 SPY 5 min has a positive leading divergence, even though price ha moved down today, 3C's job is not to follow price, it is to contradict it when appropriate. With all 3 majors have 5 min positive divergences, I see no reason to ignore them.

 The 15 min SPY trend, again, no need for drawings here

And the more recent 15 min trend, negative over the last two days, any price strength will strengthen this divergence.

As I said, I see no reason at this point to write off the 5 min divergences and I think my compromise position of entering shorts in partial positions and leaving room for potential upside is the best strategy at this point. Truth be told, we should see a very nasty move down and while I want to give you the best risk/reward positioning available, I also don't want to miss the boat. If need be, I have no problem whatsoever adding to a short position that is moving in my favor.

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