Thursday, April 19, 2012

This DIA Chart is making me nuts

First let me say considering the Spanish auction and the negative reaction, the miss in Initial Claims, the miss in the Existing Home Sales, the miss big in the Philly F-e-d, etc, I am surprised the market has taken all of this in relative stride, that's my emotional reaction. On the other side of the coin, I know that Wall Street runs their cycles and the bad news will be priced in after they are done.

However, even with the market holding up better today than it should be, even with yesterday's analysis suggesting the SPY will pin as many options contracts as possible near the $140 area, this DIA chart is driving me nuts.

 Since our bounce started April 10th, it has technically done what was expected in crossing the red trendline to the upside. I haven't looked at the DIA options chain so I'm not sure where a likely pin would be, but assuming the markets move together and the Dow follows the SPX to some degree on an options pin, then the Dow-30 might look something like this tomorrow (yellow candle), which would be fine for the reasons the market bounce/volatility shakeout was run in the first place, the higher they can move the market, the more shorts they stop out, the more longs they trap. That all makes sense.

This 15 min DIA chart though is driving me nuts, this is way more negatively leading divergent than the last 3 failed bounces. I'm taking this as a sign of market weakness and just how much distribution has actually taken place in to the volatility shakeout and how bad a shape the market is in, but in the past, I would call this a reversal point nearly every time, thus even with all the above mentioned, the chart is making me crazy.

I'm not saying anything more here than what I've said, I suppose this is more venting than anything, but this chart looks bad.

I'm going to look in to the Risk assets ad the large caps.



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