Tuesday, May 22, 2012

AAPL Update

AAPL June $540 Calls are at a 70% gain, I may even consider adding some July calls to the mix on this pullback today, after all, the expected bounce move was always thought to be led by AAPL.

 AAPL is in short covering territory, yesterday's intraday trend had a bit of a short covering look to it, but not the classic intraday short covering look which lacks pullbacks intraday. I think the $575 area where there's some resistance will be an important level and the gap up to the $580 area, I think that will produce more of a short covering move in AAPL.

 The 1 min chart is going positive in to AAPL's pullback today

 The 2 min chart confirms the trend, shows (like the 1 min) some distribution on the open (likely retail shorts) and we have a positive divergence on this chart as well.

 The 3 min is also going positive, not you don't see the negative divergence on the open, this is why I think it was retail shorting the gap up.

 The 5 min has a fairly large accumulation cycle, confirmation and is moving positive.

 At this point there's really no need to see additional accumulation on the 15 min chart, as AAPL moves up we should start to see distribution on this chart, but it has remained in a leading positive position, suggesting AAPL underwent some significant accumulation in to lower prices.

The 60 min chart shows a leading negative divergence as the main theme, but also a relative positive for the near term. The yellow arrow denotes what would be a classic head fake move below support.

If I decide to add AAPL July Calls, I'll let you know, right now it's more of a time issue than anything is looking at the chain, prices and figuring out appropriate position size-risk management.

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