GOOG Update

I entered the GOOG equity short position taking a chance on a head fake move, the head fake move worked and I was willing to risk 1.2% (originally) of portfolio value (not including margin) and up to 2% maximum to see if it would work. The head fake trade worked, my hope was GOOG wouldn't see the typical strength most stocks see when the market moves (occasionally you get lucky) as the market's direction is the greatest gravitational pull on a stock on any given day (excluding stock specific events-earnings, news, etc). I tried the trade, I see some things I don't like and got out at better than break even, it's not a great gain, but this was a speculative (probabilities, not position size) trade to begin with.

 Covered GOOG for a 3.3% gain in 3 days, again not the gains I was looking for, but better than a 1.2% loss. Note that GOOG represented nearly 10% of portfolio size (not including margin), but the trade itself represented 1.2% risk. The point being, you can put on a decent size trade and still keep your risk small if you wait for the trade to come to you.

 GOOG made the head fake move in yellow above a defined area of resistance, the yellow arrow is the entry, GOOG opened above my initial 1.2% risk stop the next day, but 3C showed distribution and I stuck with it. Today I see something new developing. Keep in mind that market updates aren't the only way to judge the market's most likely path, when you see a bunch of stocks all giving the same signal that's also an important piece of the puzzle. You saw it in AAPL, now you'll se it in GOOG. I will continue to monitor GOOG for another potential short position. One of the defining differences between a pro trader and an amateur is that a pro will take several tries at a position keeping their losses small until they get the position they want. An amateur tries it once and forgets about it, especially if they took a loss which is usually much bigger than it should be.

 GOOG 2 min positive divergence at an area of support.

 Yesterday GOOG still looked good with this negative divergence on a 3 min, today there's a positive building.

 The 5 min chart is leading positive at that support area, you can see the negative yesterday that kept me in the trade.

The 15 min chart looking at the overall head fake move's distribution-reson for entering and now a 15 min positive divergence is building. GOOG wouldn't be one of my picks for a speculative /hedge long, but nonetheless there's a positive signal developing there, time to close the trade as probabilities are no longer on the side of the short.