BIDU is a great example of a trade that we saw a head fake move coming before it even started, we showed patience and let the trade come to us. My current equity short position in BIDU is up 18% and I'm hoping to fill out the position on some price strength.
Here's what BIDU looked like today...
Looking at a 10 min chart and after seeing some of the 3C charts below, I believe when BIDU broke below the first support level, it was accumulated there as a possible head fake move as some shorts would have entered on the break of support, especially because BIDU has had a lot of relative weakness over the last several weeks, it would be an obvious retail short target.
On the 1 min chart today there was a negative divergence right off the open. Note the leading positive divergence starting at 1 pm through 2 pm, that's the accumulation I believe took place mentioned above. BIDU finished the day with a nice positive divergence. Remember the edge in 3C is that is has the power to contradict price and show us what the true underlying trade is whereas price is often deceptive.
2 min chart shows a negative divergence on the open, the same leading positive divergence around 1-2 pm and a decent positive divergence o the close
3 min chart shows the exact same, negative on the open, the 1-2 pm leading positive (which I don't think is a failed divergence) and a strong positive at the close.
The 5 mi chart shows all the same things, that's a lot of confirmation and the way 3C's look back period works, it wouldn't show this confirmation if it wasn't there.
The 15 min went positive at Friday's lows, currently 3C is in line with price, overall pretty good looking.
This hourly chart is very interesting, the negative divergences in to the yellow box area is the head fake move we shorted, you can see why the trade is at such a nice gain as the area we shorted was very low risk, high probability and we waited for it to come to us. The positive divergence on the 60 min is encouraging for a bounce in BIDU, a bounce that will be use to short in to.
This may be a candidate for anyone who wants a little long exposure or to hedge shorts.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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