Market Update

 Still near term, but a little longer view will be resistance at the red trendline coming up, traders will be expecting a failure of a test of resistance and look to short the SPY right at that level, Wall Street may very well throw them a bone and give them reason to believe a test of resistance will fail there so we'll have to watch for that as we move closer, we are pretty much in the vicinity where traders will start to look for that failure so trade could get choppy soon. A break above that resistance level which I believe will come, will be the catalyst to really get a short squeeze underway, just an FYI of what you might expect to see.

Intraday, just as ES held up well with the Euro correlation being negative, the SPY thus far is holding up very well considering the Euro is lower today than yesterday from the overnight action. In the near term today this may start to act as a drag, but I think the Euro pullback probably isn't that serious and it should get moving higher giving more support to the market.

 ES has a small negative divergence, but the larger theme is confirmation.

 Yesterday the CONTEXT Model wasn't looking supportive of ES, now it's very close to ES and much more supportive than yesterday , the two are trading nearly in sync. We'll see later what the details are in a Risk Asset Update.

 The DIA has been the laggard in 3C and remains so, the 1 min chart shows a negative divergence, however the fact 3C is pointing up and doesn't have a inflection point down leaves room for improvement. It has been a market trend lately for early morning gains to fall off, especially big ones and then pick p in the more important and more closely watched afternoon trade.

 DIA 2 min trend is starting to show confirmation, which is an improvement for the DIA.

 The 5 min trend is also showing confirmation of price action. this is an improvement for the DIA and suggests that short term intraday action on the 1 min chart is largely noise and Euro arbitrage.

 The WIM is showing a 1 min intraday negative divergence here, it's not surprising, what is surprising is the market's strength given the Euro's current position, but we have to remember the context of what is really going on here.

 IWM 1 min trend, from a positive divergence at the Friday/Monday lows, largely confirmation of the move higher with a few smaller negative divergences creating consolidations intraday.

 IWM 5 min is leading positive-Remember the longer the timeframe, the more weight it carries so a 1 min negative divergence may effect intraday trade, but as long as the longer charts are positive like this, we can expect pullbacks and such to resolve to the upside.

 Most importantly is the IWM 15 min leading positive divergence.

 QQQ 1 min showing a negative intraday divergence

 Again, the 15 min leading positive is like the rock to the 1 min chart's scissors.

 SPY 1 min also has a negative divergence, but 3C hasn't turned down since the capture so there's room for improvement intraday.

 The 1 min trend with the theme being confirmation, we saw a slight pullback/consolidation at yesterday's negative divergence.

 SPY 2 min trend

SPY 5 min trend is leading positive.

All in all, it's just probabilities and patience.