Friday, August 3, 2012

Still Loving BIDU short here

BIDU is a core short position, as BIDU was putting in a price consolidation pattern (bearish), we knew a bear trap was being set and took out some long positions to take advantage of it, however it now looks pretty clear that the bear trap has run its course and BIDU looks set to continue lower and it's at an excellent risk/reward area for a short, this is one I already added to in the equities model portfolio among core shorts.

 In red is where we started the core short position, based on the bearish price pattern/consolidation, traders would have expected BIDU to follow the red arrows, instead shorts got locked in on a head fake break lower (yellow) and then trapped as BIDU moved above the bearish price consolidation. To make matters worse for Technical traders, Technical Analysis teaches that if a price pattern fails, reverse your trade, meaning the shorts who already were burnt would have reversed to a long position and that looks like it has run its course.

 1 min intraday not looking good

 1 min trend also looking bad with a leading negative divergence

 3 min is going leading negative here, BIDU MAY make a higher high than the recent high of yesterday on a head fake move before moving lower, we see that a lot, but as far as long term positions go, I would have a wide enough stop to ride out any such possible move (BIDU has already had quite a few head fakes) and maybe even leave some room to add to the position in case that happens.

 5 min positive at the head fake lows and a leading negative divergence in to higher prices, basically it looks like smart money used the head fake and price strength to sell/ sell short in to higher prices.

 The 15 min chart positive at the head fake lows and leading negative now.

The 60 min chart, trend confirmation on the downside, a positive at the head fake lows and a leading negative divergence in to higher prices off the bear trap.

I really like BIDU as a longer term core short.

No comments: