Friday, August 3, 2012

TECS-The replacement for TYP

TECS is the replacement for TYP, it is a 3x leveraged Bear (short) Technology ETF. I've had at least 4 emails on it in the last 2 days so I thought I'd just cover it. Being our macro trend is leaning bearish, this probably isn't a bad long idea to consider, it's just about timing and we may very well have a decent timing signal today.

 Daily channel in TECS, recently it hasn't touched the lower channel.

 TECS has broken below an obvious support level, we see this often before a reversal for a reason, the break below triggers stops which creates supply and at better prices so it is easier and cheaper to accumulate.

Note the volume spiked this morning right at the break of support.

 The 1 min chart which shows us intraday moves clearly showed TECS was going to make a move down, this doesn't tell us much about the longer term, but gives us a hint at what has been planned in the market. We can see a positive divergence on the break below support so it looks reasonable that the volume created by stops at support or short orders being hit, was used to start accumulating or perhaps even finish up accumulating.

 The 2 min chart shows basically the same, the positive divergence has migrated to the 2 min today in leading positive position.

 Same with the 3 min

 And the 5 min-this is good migration, a clean signal.

 The reason I said "maybe even finish up accumulating" is because of the leading positive position of the 15 min chart.

 Note the 30 min chart shows the channel seen on the first daily chart at the top, note 3C moving lower as it should for confirmation at least until recently as it makes a higher high with price at a lower low, the essence of a positive divergence and on an important timeframe.

The 60 min chart also shows what appears to be a strong positive divergence at the recent reaction low.

I think TECS is worth a look, it's probably a matter of timing more than anything and that can pretty much be nailed down by the timing in the QQQ market updates.

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