Friday, August 3, 2012

Treasuries-Flight to safety; more pieces of the puzzle

When risk assets like stocks move down there is a flight to safety trade, that may include Staples, Healthcare and Utility stocks, but more often than not it is a flight to the safety of treasuries.

I was looking at the divergences in TLT which seem to confirm just about everything else we are looking at not only on a longer term strategic basis, but on a intraday tactical basis. As a way to find confirmation of the signals/readings on the 3C charts, I'll often look at an asset that is the mirror opposite and look for 3C signals that are the mirror opposite, that way we know what is happening in one is confirmed by what is happening in its counterpart, so here's an A/B comparison of TLT (Long 20+ year treasuries) and TBT (UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries).

 TLT intraday 3 min chart's trend, there was distribution, but note the least reaction high, even on a short term 3 min chart (lots of details), in the yellow box there is no negative divergence, now look at today, not only an intraday leading positive, but a longer term relative positive divergence

 TBT 3 min shows an intraday and longer term leading negative divergence-confirmation.

 TLT 60 min with a recent leading positive divergence

TBT with a recent 60 min leading negative divergence-confirmation again.

It looks like the flight to safety (in underlying trade has begun, which tends to confirm what we are seeing in the market charts.)

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