Friday, October 5, 2012

AAPL Holding Support

As you know I closed an AAPL short position on positive divergences and a bounce, that was right before the head as made, so glad to have closed it, but I and others are still looking to re-open it. The $680-$690 area looked/looks reasonable for a last shoulder, that's what the plan still is as AAPL is holding sone support even as the NASDAQ doesn't.

 AAPL in green holding support from 12 pm, QQQ in red is not. This provides better odds as I expect AAPL to bounce at least 1 more time on a right shoulder to the $680-$690 level.

 AAPL 2 min positive at the support level it held on a 2 min

 Also out to 10 min

 The positive nature of the 15 min chart which was leading positive is all washed away, 3C is lower now than when it started although price is slightly higher. This is encouraging for entering the short, still we want the trade to come to us, not to chase it.

AAPL's 4 hour chart seems like a pretty safe bet, we had a MArch short in AAP that made money on a negative divergence, then the early June lows and positive divergence came-I also think it is likely this was the QE3 front running period-, there's a relative negative divergence in to higher prices as AAPL institutional position are huge and as usual, the relative divergence is typically followed by a worse leading negative divergence and this one is much worse than earlier in the year.

I'd still encourage patience and let the trade come to you unless $30 or $40 isn't a big deal for you in draw down within the bigger picture.

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