Market Update

With the SPY being the only intraday chart without a positive divergence, who would have thought it was the one that was exactly right.

In any case, it looks like we have an upside move coming as divergences have built in, I'll show you how this fits in with the bigger picture (but still locally as in the rest of the day and early next week) and how this fits in with an SRTY trade and what needs to happen if we have enough time now. The futures have important information for early next week, but I want to get this post out and I'll post the futures next.

 The SPY's leading negative divergence (actually it's in line with price action, but leading negative considering where 3C is and where price is) was right on, but that doesn't mean things weren't happening while price moved lower, things are always happening that you'd never know by looking at price and conventional indicators.

 The QQQ 2 min was positive earlier, it did move up on that positive divergence around 12 pm, it didn't see a negative on the pullback so I think it's still in positive mode as it makes a second (larger) positive divergence. My guess is that the market rallies in to the close from here.

 The SPY 2 min chart was quietly accumulating and is now at a positive divergence and looks ready to move higher in to the close from here. The question is "Does it move higher in confirmation or distribution?" and that's an important question for the SRTY trade idea.

 The IWM was positive earlier, it moved a little, but kept on building a larger positive divergence. When I talked about SRTY earlier today, I wanted to see it pullback and do exactly this, that's where I would have bought it, now I'm not sure if we'll have enough time to get those signals in place before the close.

 As far as the larger implications, the IWM 10 min chart did not hold its ground today which actually means that despite market maker and specialist accumulation to move the market toward some VWAPS, institutional money looks like they were either selling or at least they weren't buying in with the middle men.

 SRTY 1 min remained positive and started going negative on a 1 min chart (intraday), it has enough of a divergence to turn down, again the question is, "Does it see accumulation in to the move down?", usually it would, but also they'll usually wait until it's a bit cheaper before starting to accumulate and now it's a matter of time in the day.

 The 10 min chart of SRTY, considering price is below the range, is leading positive, much like it's polar opposite, the IWM's 10 min is starting to lead negative, that's confirmation between two different or opposite ETFs giving exactly opposite signals, not good for the IWM as trade continues to unfold.

This is what needs to happen in SRTY, I doubt we have enough time today, maybe Monday, but it needs to pullback in price as I have drawn with a green arrow, go slightly sideways to allow for the divergence to build and the positive divergence needs to move even higher as I drew in with blue arrows. I suspect it will happen, I think today is not looking promising though which is fine as I'd rather not commit to a new trade before a weekend which is a wild card.

Futures next...