Friday, October 5, 2012

AAPL Update

 AAPL 1 min chart since yesterday's afternoon rally attempt which failed, also the current 1 min divergence although 3C hasn't turned up yet, I suspect it will and the divergence will be put in for some intraday strength to build.

 The 60 min chart, it was several days ago I posted about the probability of symmetry in AAPL, although a sloppy formation, it's tighter than usual as I suspected because of the parabolic move up through 2012 which should reverse with a "U" shape daily pattern, that means this H&S price pattern needs to be tighter. We have what looks like 3 left shoulders, possibly 2 and we already have 2 right shoulders as AAPL approaches the neckline which is probably why 3C is starting to show a positive divergence/support in the area. I'd really like to re-enter the short in AAPL at the top of a shoulder, not on a break below the neckline, there's less risk at the top of a shoulder and a better entry.

 The 2 min chart coming off the last shoulder's top, negative at the top, a positive divergence yesterday in to the afternoon and I already showed how that move failed with a negative divergence. In contrast, this current 2 min "possible" positive divergence is quite small, I suspect AAPL will spend some time today chopping laterally to allow the divergence to build for what I think will be 1 more shoulder.

 The trend in the 3 min chart is exactly what you'd expect to see in a price formation like this, it starts out not so bad and becomes progressively worse as you can see it has by the time the head is formed.

And finally a 15 min chart which has some influence with the two right shoulders, this chart looks stronger than it probably is as they had to through in quite a bit of support to halt that slide from the top of the head, but it's also strong enough that I would think the probability is for at least 1 more shoulder, hopefully it's a bit bigger and gives us a bit more time to work with.

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