Friday, October 5, 2012

Stops

This annoys the living daylights out of me, Technical Traders who refer to technical levels like "SPX $1466.93 is support/resistance, etc."

Real support and resistance are formed by human emotion, you get in a trade on a breakout of $10 at $10 and it drops to $8.50, maybe your position was way too big and you are REALLY worried, losing sleep at night (which if you are practicing good risk management, you should never feel like that, when you do there's usually a problem with your risk management/position size). So the stock rallies back to $9.87, you've been telling yourself all that time, "If I can just get out close to break-even" and you sell at $9.87, that mass emotion is what creates real support and resistance. Using exact levels like trendlines, century marks like $100 or $10,000, or popular moving averages and quoting support/resistance to the penny gets you one thing... stopped out.

Remember if you place a stop-loss or any order with your broker that's on a conditional status, that's on the books for all to see and smart money knows exactly where the orders and stops will congregate without even needing to look at the books, but I never place orders like that, it's like playing poker and letting the guy next to you peak at your cards.

Here's a small example of "support" stopping out traders in AAPL today.

 I have to imagine these are short term/intraday traders based on the stops, the first level was the a.m. lows as support, it's broken, volume is up, traders are stopped out. The second area is the H&S neckline which can be drawn slightly different, but in any case, either way you draw it, stops were hit in the white box, that just gives market makers the shares they need at a discount to move the asset up and make some money on the trade, on the bis/ask and volume-volume rebates.

That's why I developed the Trend Channel, to take arbitrary stops out of the equation, for longs, they would have been stopped out at the red arrow and made a decent gain.

No comments: