GLD Head Fake nearly confirmed

By the way, intraday since GLD is coming up to the support area where the head fake will be confirmed below that level, I'd expect to see some lingering around the area and the 3C intraday charts support that.

I didn't have time to enter an options trade yesterday on GLD for this move today and was a little skeptical in front of the NFP which has turned out thus far to be a total non-event. In any case, I still have the GLL short on GLD and I'm wondering if anyone played the head fake trade yesterday with options or otherwise? If so drop me an email and let me know how you did.

Analytically, a lot can be said about gold's performance today and the NFP number as well as market performance, if you read last night's long post than you have an idea of what I'm talking about. The different dynamic that seems to be building under the QE3 regime, as opposed to QE1 and 2 was not only proposed by me weeks ago, but in the minutes the F_O_M_C participants that cast their votes confirmed EXACTLY what I suspected. I think the minutes might actually end up having more influence or at least will surprise those of conventional QE wisdom than the actual policy itself. The minutes were for once, a big deal and if you missed the minutes and my attempt to put them in context in last night's post, you might be missing out on some very important tactical/strategic information in dealing with the market and QE3 moving forward.


GLD..

 We saw 2 previous failed breakouts or actually head fake moves out of the GLD trading range, today we are right there, cents away from confirming another head fake move.

 The 3 min chart yesterday was so consistent in its distribution, I should have made time for a trade, but it was busy yesterday, a 17 hour day in fact.

 Here's where the chart supports the idea of a head fake move and I posted this before we even had the move up, the 10 minute chart which is out of the intraday context and in to the underlying trade, shows a worsening leading negative divergence and at each of the failed breakouts (white boxes), you can see 3C distribution at those breakouts was worse. Or you could simply say, the breakouts in GLD which many traders will buy after QE3 was announced, gave enough room and demand for smart money to ell short or just sell in to the move higher, the price was better and the demand was there which institutional money needs when dealing with positions the size of theirs, no 100 lots.

Based on the chart above, I have no reason to close the GLL leveraged short ETF position.

Here's the intraday 1 min chart in GLD, it does look like it will bounce or consolidate/linger around the breakout area before dropping lower as technical traders come in at this level, however this is 1 min only, intraday.