Monday, November 19, 2012

AAPL Update

Friday's December $540 calls are killing it, up at least +80% now. I'm not one to be greedy, especially with leveraged products, but I've also taken these profit way to early and regretted it. I want to let AAPL get in to the Trend Channel and look over the market in aggregate before making any decisions, of course any major pullback, even if I'm expecting much more upside, I'd rather see the position closed and re-entered at a better price on a pullback. Don't forget some AAPL equity/stock positions were opened as well and they are now up nearly 4% so there's a different Trend Channel for those which will be wider.

Here's where AAPL is as far as getting close to being able to use the Trend Channel...
 For options I'd like to see this 15 min Trend Channel catch up a bit more, it has already made a great move, but it needs to catch up some more and it should keep locking in profits and has about a 3 day trend in AAPL that it has been holding recently, combined with shorter term 3C signals, I'm hoping this provides a decent stop for Call positions.

 The 60 min trend is more for the Equity positions and should hold well and continue to move up and lock in gains, but it too still needs time to catch up to the fast reversal in price.

 Lets not forget AAPL had/has a 30 min leading positive divergence, this is quite large and should support quite a large move that I think will surprise many on the TwitStream that are shorting AAPL right now.

The closer 3 min chart seems to have not only picked up a head fake move Friday, but indeed, perhaps an even larger head fake move from November 7th. In these cases the area where the positive divergence first begins, (around the 7th) we typically see price move well above the area where accumulation first started even though the averaged accumulated position is already most likely in the green.

It's good to see AAPL participate, I think it may catch quite a few people off guard and don't forget the head fake areas we already knew about Friday in this post...

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