From what I understand, the Twitter-verse is in a bearish uproar, "Short", "The time to short was 2 hours ago", etc, etc.
Doesn't it strike you as odd how incredibly comfortable I felt with adding long positions on Friday, but only after having seen charts/evidence to give me that peace and then in overnight trade we see ES gap up and in day time trade it moves even higher? Here was the post from Friday, I wouldn't have said it if I didn't really feel it.
"I liked today's end of the week, it didn't leave me with an annoying question in my head that I knew I'd spend hours over the weekend trying to solve. The market showed some real changes in character, even though that process has been underway for weeks (which should give you an idea of what we could be dealing with) and did so on an op-ex day."
Here I'm just saying how nice it will be to have a weekend where I'm not digging through the market trying to find the highest probabilities because I had already seen them and I could relax and enjoy the weekend.
AAPL, Can You Ask For More?
"I think only the profits that (will) accumulate in your account"
Another post from Friday about AAPL, up 6% or so today
And there were lots more.
Don't take closing out Call positions as a sign of doubt in the market or AAPL to move higher, I've just developed a very low tolerance to draw down in heavily leveraged positions like options so I'd rather close them at a 100+% gain and re-open them at a better price than sit through even an intraday pullback.
As for AAPL charts... Here's what I see, here's what I think we'll see and how I'd probably play it.
The daily chart of AAPL today has really confirmed that reversal Hammer Candle from Friday, even if AAPL closes below its open, it still can confirm that reversal candle. I did highlight a couple of areas in AAPL on moves up and down (they aren't the best examples, but I had the AAPL chart open) and I wanted to point out that strong moves up and strong moves down aren't straight lines, they have days that cause doubt and certainly intraday moments that cause doubt. Look at the start of the downtrend in thE second box, AAPL REALLY fell hard from here, but after a couple of days we see a big move up of about +2.5%, believe me, back then when AAPL had just come off a all time new high, that particular day caused some doubt in the hearts of the shorts and fear, so I'm trying to acclimate you to what is normal in the market and what is unreasonable because a lot of the time we expect a reversal will be easy since we waited for it and did all of our home work, that's not the case. Like I said, it Wall St. can't trade against you, they can't make money so they aren't going to make it easy and the shorts in AAPL are feeling that today and the longs in AAPL are starting to feel that right now as it comes off the day's highs. DON'T GET LOST IN THE LONES, LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE.
AAPL 5 min negative divergence, yes the short sellers are out following the trend and selling short, that's fine. Some of you probably made well in excess of 100% in AAPL in 1 day and there will be more opportunities.
The 30 min chart is the bigger picture, remember I wanted to see this hit a new leading positive high? There it is. So imagine price pulls back like my green arrow and 3C moves like my blue arrows, you have an even bigger, better, higher probability trade to make 100+% all over again.
The main point though is this chart shows a large positive divergence, it doesn't get satisfied with a 1 day move.
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