I've had several questions along these lines today and I understand you want to plan as do I, but this is why I not only opened the options position on Friday (and you know I only do that when I think we are right there with options), but also why I wanted a equity position so I don't have to worry about draw down and time decay and just let the AAPL position work like the 30 min chart has been warning us.
We can look at AAPL, but every market is different, AAPL did not cooperate or put in a positive divergence for a while and then just about two weeks ago I told you something was changing, it was starting to go positive.
In one day AAPL has nearly taken out the last 2 weeks of trade to the downside, this is why I don't ignore these divergences and I rarely question them, but I've had years of experience with them and know that the chances are very high they pay off.
AAPL charts...
Talk about changes in character and this is something people just do NOT pay enough attention to, AAPL is putting in the biggest 1 day move thus far since earnings back on April 25th and you may recall we saw that coming to and were long AAPL 2 days in advance of that, but the biggest 1 day move up since April.
I know the shorts are still out there, they still are preaching about the "Trend is your friend", but they haven't seen the 3C trend. I'd say $600 is a major psychological point, it's a century mark that the mind gravitates toward and it will likely be the place AAPL really surprises some people, but I can't imagine AAPL can go up too much more without starting to trigger a short squeeze.
Now I know you want to plan and look for a new entry, this is all I can show/tell you right now because we were warned AAPL was going to move and we had a lot of time to phase in and prepare as we watched not only AAPL, but the broad market.
As it stand s we have a 3 min negative divergence, this to me really doesn't mean much, maybe it moves AAPL intraday, but I could very well see a follow through day tomorrow-Remember what I said last night about consumer confidence and Black Friday and how it would need to be an extreme move and fast! In any case, I don't see what I would call distribution of a serious nature at all.
Even this 5 min chart doesn't really phase me, in normal times I'd say yes, AAPL will likely be down tomorrow, but look at today's gain, these aren't normal times and all of this on no news or even bad news.
15 min chart is in line so there's no damage there.
30 min chart is making new highs, "IF" we get a pullback in AAPL and this chart hold up or moves up, this could be even bigger than I can imagine, but again 1 bridge at a time.
Now we have a 60 min chart leading in a day, compare to the negative divergence that brought AAPL down so far, it looks a lot different.
My only advice would be to watch the updates, look for the pullback and then we verify the probabilities on these charts, but I can almost guarantee they will be there.
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