Monday, November 19, 2012

Putting ES in Perspective

Last week I showed you the positive divergences in ES, timeframes I've never seen them in, especially multiple longer term timeframes all at the same time, this hopefully helps you understand how unique the situation the market is in right now truly is.


First the charts you may recall from last week...

 ES 15 min leading well above the last relative price high.

 ES 30 also leading significantly to the upside

 ES 60 min which is a very long timeframe to be leading like this, as I said, I don't recall every seeing anything like this.

 Is we roll back to earlier this year, to the left on this 4 hour chart, that's where we were entering our core shorts (all of which were closed in the green or are still in the green. Note the positive divergence after that, you may recall that as the June 4th lows.

 Here we are now,  the green arrow is the announcement of QE 3, there was a negative divergence shortly after and the market moved lower, but now we have a similar positive divergence to the June 4 the lows.

As yo know my big picture view is very bearish, there are a lot of charts that have led me to that opinion, this is just another, ES 1 day, a clear negative divergence in leading position. This is a longer term trend, there's plenty of room before this kicks in for the market to move up down and sideways, but ultimately, this is where the highest long term probabilities lay.

In any case, we'll keep an eye on overnight trade

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