Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Considering AAPL Calls

AAPL has been a tough one, I figured a while back what we would see in AAPL would be too many hedge funds trying to fit through the same door at the same time and we'd see AAPL fall, however at some point some larger fund would likely manipulate AAPL higher to sell in to that strength. Last week's filing from Dan Loeb's hedge fund didn't help as AAPL was listed as the #1 loser for the month, this is totally broadly in line with what we've been seeing in AAPL really since Winter this year, positions were unwound a little back then and then through the summer.

AAPL has been the one stock I suspected would lead a bounce move, but it just hasn't developed in the charts, it's been a big disappointment in the charts as money still seeks the exit and too much is trying to fit through at once.

However for the first time in a couple of weeks AAPL is finally building something which is a change in character because it is something we haven't seen recently.

The difficulty is we've been burnt on AAPL calls, especially on this last, most extreme move in AAPL. Just so newer members are aware, AAPL is one of my FAVORITE shorts out there, but not here, it needs to shakeout the early shorts and weaker hands, it could do that on the bounce move we are looking for, the problem was it didn't look like it was participating in building like other stocks and averages were through the range and beyond.

I'll show you the AAPL charts, as far as any new positions in calls, I think I'll require a higher standard from AAPL, but if I were considering a straight equity long, I might be more inclined to look at that here, however I am not.

 AAPL Daily
 AAPL 3 min positive

 Closer view of the 3 min

 5 min positive

 15 min positive

 Even a 30 min positive, something is going on here.

And for the first time a higher high while price makes a lower low on a 60 min chart, a positive divergence out to 60 min!

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