These are just a few odds and ends I look at during the day or after the close, they help give guidance or confirmation/non-confirmation to other information.
First some of the leading indicators that still haven't impressed me much today, but there are a few that stand out, on the downside of leading indicators most are in line with price action and not worse.
As for currencies, if I had to guess, I'd guess that stops were just run pretty hard using Draghi as an excuse even though we've known well before Draghi that German Bunds were yielding 0% and that there were signs of contagion long ago whether it be ISM, PMI, ports and volume at ports, etc, it really wasn't news, but saw a violent reaction which most are blaming on the election, it started well before the election and ES was heading higher after it was clear Obama won. Things always need to be broken down to the easiest common denominator as everyone wants to understand "Why?", but the question and generally the answer couldn't be more irrelevant.
This is one interesting leading indicator, High Yield Credit has maintained and even gained some as the market went to risk off mode, usually if it were true risk off, Credit would be telegraphing it long before equities, especially High Yield Credit as the move would be to Investment Grade.
The NYSE TICK chart today hit extremes this morning below the -1250 mark and at the low of the day a little less extreme, the rest of the day was in a pretty moderate area on the TICK, we even saw some moves >+1000. SPY is in red on this chart
In this area of the end of day trade on some small bounces that were barely noticeable...
TICK hit >+1000 again and this while the market was more or less still in a pullback area.
The 3C chart for EUR/USD has been positive since the US open, it went negative at the yellow arrow/European open on Draghi's commentsWe even have a recent new leading high.
This is the FXE/Euro chart on a 2 min scale, this is why I said my guess would be a stop run in the Euro.
3 min chart looks too similar.
As does the 5 min chart
As for the $AUD...
Remember this for later, intraday it showed a negative divergence yesterday and a positive today.
The FXE/Euro 15 min chart would be along the same lines as say the QQQ 15 min leading positive divergence, thus I'd think we saw a run of the stops in FX-land.
The $USD 1 min today leading negative, in line with the EUR/USD chart.
The 2 min, again too similar to the Euro/FXE 2 min and 3 min charts.
$USD 5 min, also too similar for coincidence in my opinion.
And UUP 10 min, compare to the Euro/FXE 15 min above.
The AUD/USD looks like it had a pretty big hiccup...
A closer look appears to be showing a rounding bottom, FX trends better than stocks and we do have the positive divergence in the $AUD, this would imply risk on is still the theme despite today's shellacking.
$AUD vs the SPY, still in a pretty positive area.
The trend in the $AUD vs the SPY, this is probably more important than any of the other FX charts.
No comments:
Post a Comment