Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Look at the QQQ/Tech

As the last post was the SPY, this is the Q's, although we'll start with the SPY 1 min negative divergence...
 This is the essence of 3C in its simplest form, price moves to an equal high or higher high and 3C moves to  lower high, this is a negative divergence. This tells us that there's less money in the issue at the second high vs the first high, we have to understand what that means to the trend. Because this is only a 1 min chart this means it's an intraday move, it's not big money, it's just enough to move the issue intraday and there can be a lot of reasons for that such as wanting to accumulate more of the issue at a lower price. In any case, you can see the SPY responded to the divergence. The longer the timeframe, the more important or larger the money flow is, the longer the divergence persists, the longer smart money has been engaged in whatever they are doing (accumulating/distributing) and eventually it follows the more powerful the eventual reversal the divergence is warning of, just as the 1 min chart warned of an intraday move to the downside in the SPY (as well as other market averages).

 QQQ 1 min shows a very positive divergence, leading in fact which is the strongest form of divergence (in the white box). If this divergence is strong enough and there's enough money moving in to the position, it will begin to show up on longer timeframes, sometimes there are a number of small divergences on fast timeframes that don't stand out, but their divergence accrues on the longer timeframes.

 The QQQ 3 min is a longer timeframe and we have a leading positive divergence here too, this is telling us that the 1 min divergence is more than just an intraday mover, in fact if the QQQ were to follow the 1 min chart, it would probably have closed today's gap by now, but smart money trades in much bigger size which is what most people fail to understand, thus it takes them more time to accumulate or distribute their larger positions and do it without being detected by dumb money or the predatory High Frequency Traders that search out large orders or "Icebergs", in both cases they would each try to front run smart money making smart money pay a lot more for their shares than they would otherwise. You have to think about the difference between 100 share lots and 100k or 1 mn share positions or even larger, it requires an entirely different approach and thus my early certainty that it was unlikely we see a "V" shaped (fast) reversal.

 QQQ 5 min is leading positive, with a pullback it can add to this positive divergence.

 The 5 min Tech chart shows why the QQQ is outperforming the SPY today.

Here's the accrual of a longer term accumulation cycle from the 22nd through the 31st and even in to this week, this puts the very important 15 min chart in a leading positive divergence. If there were large scale distribution today this 15 min chart would show deterioration.

So far so good, although it's a distraction and a bit of a waste of time from our perspective, however we can only see parts of what smart money is doing (a lot more than most see), we almost never know why they are doing what they are doing until the reason comes out and by then there's no money to be made.

This is the essence of Technical Analysis and what it seeks to do, figure out what smart money is doing and do the same.

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