Market Update

In the currency/market update earlier I said, "On a reversal note, it's a bit hard to imagine a "V" shaped reversal back up, but since the range is so large it is more possible now than usual."

A "V" reversal is harder to imagine, but we are seeing signs of improvement although it may not feel or look that way. The FX market still seems to be playing a big role here that I suspect will grow larger.

 This is the EUR/USD overnight, the yellow arrow is the 3 a.m. EDT European opening, note the drop in the $USD around election results sending the Euro/risk higher, followed by a negative divergence in to the European opening, around the time of Draghi's comments, I suspect this has more to do with Draghi admitting the Core of the EU is now infected than it has to do with the election although some would feel fine spinning it that way.

 Here's the EUR/USD overnight t present, the tone n 3C is changing.

 This is yesterday's 4 p.m. close and the FX pair overnight to present.

 This is the pair from the US open to present.

 It may not seem like the market is improving, all of the facts and figures about the largest 1-day drop in the Dow in over a year is interesting, but really has no bearing on analysis except to move people emotionally. ROC on all of the averages is showing improvement as the Q's above and SPY below demonstrate.

 SPY intraday w/ROC on price.

 Here's the Euro ETF 1 min starting to go leading positive like we saw on the pair.

 The 10 min has remained in a leading positive position and hasn't been moved by today's action which is good.

 The $USD ETF 2 min chart...

 and the 5 min chart-this appears to be more about the $USD than the Euro.

Finally the big picture $USD which fits with oour big picture bearish view on the market, how this happens with QE3, I don't know, but this wouldn't be the first time the $USD has shown a positive divergence and moved on it in what seemed like an impossible scenario.