GLD Update

So as you know,  a spec long position in GLD which is an asset that I really don't like analyzing for the most part because there's so much manipulation in the PMs and it can happen in minutes right after the market closes with a COMEX hike. Notice I didn't choose a full position, I didn't choose the normal leveraged GLD ETFs and I didn't choose options, this is because I think there may be a trend developing here and I might want to add to this trend, at the same time I do want some exposure because I think there's a possibility of this making a surprising move. On the downside, the risk the way I see it is quite low.

If things develop in a positive way, there's lots of room to add or switch to a leveraged product.

Here are the charts, what is interesting is not the long term trend, but the changes in the intermediate trend. Furthermore anything F_E_D related can move gold quickly, however there's almost always a FED knee jerk reaction that's almost always wrong, so I'm willing to take on some exposure as you never know when that initial knee-jerk FED reaction will flip, we just saw several FED knee-jerk reactions that flipped.

So here are the charts...

 First we have an interesting price pattern , not because it's a bullish ascending triangle-for that it's in the wrong place, but simply because there's a consolidation here rather than GLD moving down as I feel it will in the very long term, but again we take these on one bridge at a time.

 Our X-Over Screen has 1 long signal and the other 2 are VERY close to giving a full-fledged long signal.

 This is the long term trend, GLD saw strong distribution at this top and it responded to it, but there's been an interruption in the mid-term charts.

 On the 60 min chart we can just see a hint of this change, we go from negative to a positive position in 3C, it's not something that I would be interested in by itself, it's just the first hint on the longest timeframe showing it.

 On the intermediate timeframe, 15 min, we do have the same negative divergence at the top as we see on the multi-hour and 60 min chart and again we see with even more detail a positive divergence that has sent GLD higher. In addition now this 15 min chart is leading.

 Look at the long term 10 min trend, it looks exactly as it should at the top, but to the right something has changed, we take a closer look and this is what we get...


 Another leading positive divergence in a big way, on a 10 min chart, this is close enough that I would feel comfortable dipping my toes in the water, something is obviously changing in the intermediate term, this can be a month+ long move or it may be the start of something even bigger, but it is not the normal consolidation/pause we'd expect to see in a continued move down, we wouldn't expect to see this LEADING POSITIVE move!

 On a 5 min and around the area of the triangle pattern we see prices sent lower and as they move lower a positive divergence accumulating GLD and sending it higher. This doesn't look like natural/organic trade, this looks calculated.

 On the very short term 2 min we have a positive divergence from last week and GLD moved up from there, this small negative divergence is along the lines of a pullback/consolidation and can change very quickly. If GLD moves above that triangle it's going to attract a lot of attention from a lot of gold-bugs that would love to get back in Gold.

As for the YG/Gold Futures...

 The 4 hour chart confirms our 4 hour chart, negative at the top, but more important, futures are showing the same positive move recently, this is a change in character that we would not expect to see in an asset that is set to continue lower!

 The 5 min chart is more or less in line, but in a positive way.

The 1 min chart was positive, moved gold up and is pretty much in line.

I'm feeling pretty good with the decision made thus far, it can always be increased or moved out of at very little risk. I suspect something is going on here.