Quick Market Update

I still encourage you not to get "lost in the lines" and the intraday or day to day trade as there WILL be volatility with upside moves that are weaker than they should be and downside moves that aren't as bearish as they appear, the probabilities and the trade here is on a longer term basis as the divergence is on longer term charts and is large, so we may be talking about a move that goes on through the end of the year, maybe even then some.

So long positions that were set up in anticipation of this move that is really in its infancy should be matched with the timeframes where we see the highest probabilities and those are on the 10, 15, 30 and even some 60 min charts, in other words the probabilities favor the market making a move to trend higher fro a while, thus I don't want to over-react to any short term moves unless I'm in highly leveraged positions like options.

Bernie is speaking in about 20 minutes so that certainly can be an upside catalyst and as I noted Sunday night, I'm pretty sure they'd like the headlines like yesterday's, "AAPL makes a 1 day 7+% move-biggest move since XYZ", except they'd want that through this week going in to Black Friday to influence consumer sentiment about the future and market headlines are  apart of that.

I don't see strong short term/intraday underlying improvement, I do see a very popular bullish price pattern that traders will be watching and that may be a part of a new leg up, it's a bullish ascending triangle and as I just uploaded the charts below the triangle broke out as I suspected it would.

 There's the triangle formed this morning, volume is correct, Technical traders see this as a bullish price pattern and expect it to breakout to the upside. Usually I'd be looking for a head fake move, but that's not what the market needs or wants right now, it wants a move higher in to Black Friday.

 Here's how Technical Traders view it, we have a move up, the consolidation with a bullish price pattern and an expectation for a breakout above the triangle.

The TICK chart has improved since the open, on the downside it has stayed VERY mellow, on the upside we have some nice +1000 readings.

Upside is upside as far a price goes, but we also want to be aware of whether we are getting strong confirmation or not, I'm not opposed to a pullback to strengthen the move, I just see it as counter-productive to this week's probable goals.

The thing I don't want to lose sight of is the longer term 15 min+ charts and the longer term trend that should go along with those.

For now our longs should be working fine, I don't think there's a lot to do at the moment other than keep tabs on the health of the move and look for opportunities when they arise.

Here's the breakout since I started this post.

It will be interesting to see if Bernie says anything to goose the market, then we'd know for sure what already seems like common sense for the market this week in front of Black Friday.