Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Quick QQQ/Market Update

In the last post I showed you the concept, in this post you'll see the actual process. I don't mean to imply we are looking at an upside reversal and we haven't lost enough ground to make an options trade worthwhile yet, plus the fact we have several timeframes that need to confirm first, but we can see signs that we are headed in the right direction and we can predict the probabilities to be high that this would be the case before we even see our first shred of evidence based on the long term positive divergences that are getting stronger and are all over the place like I showed you last night.

 Here's the NASDAQ Futures 1 min chart and as you can see, even though the price of the futures is falling,  3C is remaining in a leading positive divergence, this is what we want to see and see this continue to happen and move through the other longer timeframes.

 Here's the NDX Futures weekly VWAP, note the positive divergence is right at the VWAP.

 On the daily VWAP prices hit the upper 2nd standard deviation and pulled back from there, however look at where the volume is and isn't, volume is slightly higher at the lower channel and lower at the upper channel, there isn't heavy selling at the upper channel, but it appears there's decent buying at the lower channel. VWAP is used extensively by institutional traders to judge value.

 The QQQ 5 min chart with a negative divergence turning price down, it's nowhere near the size of the positive sending price higher, the idea isn't to get rid of a lot of shares, it's to let go of just enough to cause price to fall where it can be accumulated at lower areas.


 Even though we are VERY early in this process and based on all of the charts I'd expect a larger move down before this is over, here we can see a positive divergence to the right, it's actually leading as price is at the exact same level around 1:15. These are very small examples, but they should build, especially at lower prices.

 We can see the same in the IWM all the way out to a 10 min chart .

And the SPY on a 2 min.

I also looked at leading indicators and at last look, they are all holding up well except the $AUD is a bit weak today but that has to do with Australian monetary policy overnight.

No comments: