Opening Indications

***Basic findings of this post, with more details below...."I do think probabilities are for a move lower earlier in the day. Bernanke speaks at 12:15 which may be a time that we see some market movement and opportunities in to the noon hour. For now I plan on just sitting tight and not getting tangled up in the choppiness this morning."

What a dichotomy, what a mess! Short term opening charts don't confirm, some are worse than others, but all on intraday timeframes. I'm not going to post all of the bigger picture charts, the ones I believe and have believed would move the market higher, a move that I also believe started in earnest Friday and really became apparent yesterday, you saw those charts last night and probably 100 times over the last month. I will say all of them are in great shape.

When we move away from 1 min intraday charts the shorter timeframes that are still intraday like 2, 3 and even 5 min (which is about where the bigger picture action starts-5 min) are all over the place and moving quickly, but not in an organized way or with any clear trend.

As I showed yesterday in trying to help set expectations and show you what bull and bear moves look like (that they aren't straight line affairs, but rather they seek to shake you out, make you doubt your position and the move), we can expect volatility intraday and day to day, it's all meant to play on your emotions. The bigger picture though still remains very bullish for the near term and what I think will be the next significant and tradable trend.

I would be patient, I'm holding leveraged long positions, although option positions I'm quicker to move out of like we did yesterday with AAPL on a 100+% 1 day gain.

I would and I am, looking for opportunities, but we need movement, we need emotions and sentiment to change to get that movement and find those opportunities. I think the take away for now is the important charts have no damage and in fact are looking even better, near term it's choppy and I'd be patient overall with the market and wait for the high probability set ups. Beyond that, as I already stated, the positions in leveraged longs I will keep open because they are meant for the bigger picture, the trend that develops over a course of weeks and maybe longer.

Here's the TICK data this morning which is interesting in a couple of ways...

 The SPY and market trying to move to yesterday's closing highs, however TICK is not confirming as you'll see below.

On the other hand, TICK is also not at any bearish extremes of -1000 or -1250/-1500.

I do think probabilities are for a move lower earlier in the day. Bernanke speaks at 12:15 which may be a time that we see some market movement and opportunities in to the noon hour. For now I plan on just sitting tight and not getting tangled up in the choppiness this morning. I'll be looking at some bigger picture indications as well to make sure they are holding up.