Tuesday, November 20, 2012

GOOG UPDATE

I have several requests for a GOOG update, this is an interesting one that I'm trying to decide what to do with as there's an equity short at a small profit and 2 Call positions meant to hedge that short (with the intention of adding to the GOOG short at higher prices) that are also at a very nice profit, I'll probably close the call positions and look for a high probability place to re-open them.

Here are the call positions at nearly a 80% and 12% gain.

 GOOG daily with a bear flag that "Should have", according to Technical Analysis, started the next trend leg lower.

 Here's the Trend Channel set to daily and on a closing basis you can see where the long position would have been closed, a short position is very close to a stop out on a closing basis at $673.95 at least for a swing (longer) move.

 The daily chart is negative, it's ugly and I'd be looking at any big move on the upside to short GOOG and I expect that the shorter term charts would confirm that in the future, but first it needs to make that big move higher as we don't chase, we let the trade come to us.

 The 60 min chart already shows signs of a positive divergence suggesting GOOG makes that upside move I'd like to short in to at some point, but because the positive divergence is so far out to a 60 min chart, the first trend I want to play is the long GOOG like you see above with the calls. I prefer calls with GOOG than long equity, but for that the standards are VERY high for the set up.

 On a 2 min chart we see GOOG preparing for this week's move higher and today's negative divergence, but we also already see a positive divergence on the short 1 min chart as GOOG moves a bit lower today, this is what we want to see, accumulation in to a pullback.

 The 5 min chart suggests that GOOG still has some downside before it's ready as a long Call position, the positive divergences should reach the 5 min chart by the time I'd want to consider opening a new Call position or long GOOG stock if you prefer.

 Again the longer term charts, like all the others you have seen are positive in GOOG on this 30 min with more detail than the 60 min chart as should be the case.

The 15 min chart, of which I showed you so many last night, has the same breakdown October 17/18 and a positive divergence in to it since then.

So now you know what I'm looking for before I consider GOOG for a new Call position.

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