Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Opportunity Looks Like It Will Be Knocking

I've showed you this type of chart explanation before, this is really no more than the essence of a divergence and why it's signal is a signal for us to enter a high probability/low risk trade.

As mentioned early today, the short term market charts in intraday timeframes are all over the place and ugly, the long term charts are strong, this is interpreted as near term weakness for a shorter period followed by longer term strength for a longer trend, therefore these dips and pullbacks offer amazing opportunities when we have this kind of chart set up in place (meaning the strength of the long term charts and the high probabilities there combined with shorter term movement that create opportunities).

I could use any market average, but I'll use AAPL since it is one of the stocks I'm most interested in as we just hit a 115-150-% 1 day return with calls. Beyond that, I want to think about longer term trending positions which I would prefer not to use leverage so the draw down in corrections doesn't cause any distress.

 AAPL 5 min shows a negative divergence on the open, it's moved to a leading negative divergence since then as trade has been relatively flat. So my expectation, until the short term charts say different, is for a pullback in AAPL, THIS IS WHY WE DON'T CHASE MOVES, imagine if you chased AAPL and bought it yesterday as it was up 6% or more!

 This 30 min chart in AAPL represents the longer tern trend developing, it suggests AAPL is no where near done with it's upside move/reversal, but for the common trader, this probably looks like a great place to short AAPL, which only helps us as they cover and send AAPL up 6 or 7% in a day.

 In the last few days, the 60 min AAPL chart has gone leading positive, this is a huge development and a huge change in character here, we also see this market wide.

So again, here's the opportunity, price pulls back and the short term 3C charts will tell us when the pullback is close to being over as they should go positive in a big way, if they didn't there's no trade, no harm, no foul, but I don't think that will be the case. If there's accumulation of AAPL in to the pullback and that's probably what will happen, then this 15 min chart will move even higher and we'll have an even stronger positive divergence. This is what it's about, without a pullback we can only sit on our longs and let them trend up with the market, with movement though like this we can set up new positions and take quick double or triple digit profits.

No comments: