AAPL Follow Up

Friday I posted this  bit of AAPL analysis on an AAPL bounce, the basic opinion of Friday's analysis as posted in the piece above was this,

 "it should be able to take AAPL a bit higher, but I don't consider this a high probability trade, you can probably make it work, but you need to be on the ball."

There haven't been any significant changes since Friday's look at AAPL, except that AAPL is up +0.75% and rising at present so it so far is in line with the analysis. As I finished the post on Friday I said that I didn't have a specific target in mind, but rather we'd need to watch the underlying flows, so if you did take the AAPL bounce/dead cat bounce trade you can email me for updates on how it is progressing.

Here are some basic charts with several different trends in AAPL over several different time periods.

11/16 AAPL put in a VERY nice daily closing candle called a "Hammer" which is a bullish reversal candle, these become much more reliable when they are on increasing volume as we see at the hammer (first white arrow from the left). This also creates a zone of broad support for AAPL in this area. Last Thursday there was a slightly less powerful, yet bullish closing candle called a "Thrusting" or "Up-Trhusting" candle on some increased volume as well, this also creates some nearby support.

 AAPL 3 min already showed us a positive divergence last week as can be seen in Friday's update and that continued this morning on the open.

 This is a closer look at the same 3 min chart above.

 The 5 min chart Friday was one of the better looking of the short term charts, even better looking than today, which may indicate we are seeing some initial profit taking by weak hands on this move this morning.

 The 10 min chart which is a little longer than the typical 'dead cat bounce" chart is making a lower low and does suggest that AAPL will see a lower low before it can really sustain a move higher that is worth trading (in my opinion), meaning being a high probability trade, not just a "better probability" trade.

 The 15 min chart also shows the break down in AAPL/Distribution in red sending AAPL lowed, but also a positive divergence in the area, which is not very large and the position of 3C compared to April 16th is lower even though price is higher, again this is another chart that suggests AAPL see a move lower before it is ready to sustain a move higher worth taking the risk of a long trade.

 Now there has been a larger positive divergence we have been following since late October that does suggest AAPL will make a significant move higher and a high probability trade, this is a longer term trade and a bit further out, I don't think it is quite set up or ready to go, but this is where the high probability long is once all charts come in to alignment with this longer term that we have been following.

I'm not going to go in to the primary trend analysis right now, but the outlook for AAPL over the long haul or Primary trend does not look good, this has been developing for more than a year.

If you need updates (between updates) on AAPL, email me.