Monday, December 10, 2012

MCP Update

MCP is a long that some of you are in, it has a very nice move today above resistance, I would absolutely have a trailing stop on this and perhaps even a couple (A tighter one to lock in profits and perhaps a bit wider one to allow for some consolidation and see if it can hold above this resistance area on the close).

 Daily chart's break above resistance on increased volume, it's important that it holds this break and does not close with a long upper wick.

 Intraday, volume as resistance is broken.

 So far this 5 min chart is in line with price so this is good.

 However divergences on a move like this always start on the shortest timeframes, the 1 min is not showing long term confirmation although it could later, more concerning is the slight deterioration specifically today, on a 1 min chart this can be profit taking in to the move, it can lead to a sideways consolidation or if it continues to worsen and move to the 2, 3, and 5 min chart, it will tell us this move is being sold in to and not likely to hold.

The 2 min chart doesn't have longer term confirmation as it should see 3C make a higher high here like the 1 min chart, but unlike the 1 min chart, so far there is no intraday weakness here, if that weakness develops more on the 1 min and moves to the 2 min, 3 min and especially 5 min charts, than I'd be much more concerned.

Again, feel free to email me for specific updates. Moving averages can work for trailing stops if you don't have my Trend Channel, for a tight stop right now a 50-bar 1 min average works, for a bit wider to allow for some consolidation, perhaps a 10-bar 15 min chart.

I am concerned a bit with the parabolic nature of the move, as you know they don't usually end well.

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