Futures

I really should have made this a 3 part analysis because all of the pieces are part of the same puzzle, they are all clues to the same answer.

In any case, there was 1 surprise in the futures and specifically in the NASDAQ futures, NQ. This caused me to look closer at the Technology Industry as the NASDAQ is Tech heavy with its components and to look at Financials as the S&P has the most exposure to financials and what I found made sense with what I saw in the ES (S&P) and NQ (NASDAQ) futures, rotation again as we saw last week. I will look at these more closely to see if there are some short term trades, I'm thinking specifically about a quick short in Financials, but I want to make sure it's worthwhile and maybe a quick long in Tech and obviously this would have some bearing on those who are in the AAPL long "bounce" trade.

 Part of the intraday trend and what comes after that (breaking above the IWM's resistance-so a mov a bit higher) is fairly well represented on the EUR/USD futures.

The 3rd part of the analysis really should include leading indicators and I will provide that for you.

First here's the EUR/USD which is very influential in intraday and trend movement as I showed you in this morning's futures update, the EUR/USD gave away what ES was going to do.

 Intraday -1 min chart, there's a negative divergence in the FX pair, this surely has some connection to the intraday negative divergences in the market update just posted and the intraday pullback that is occurring as I type this.

 If we go to the 5 min chart of the EUR/USD though, we have an overall stronger positive divergence, so like the multiple trends that develop at the same time (that gets a bit confusing), this is showing us the same thing, 1) that short term the Euro has an intraday negative divergence and will (is) pullback, which has an effect on stocks as it pressures them and they pullback intraday as well.

The longer 5 min chart is more important, it represents a longer trend that just an intraday jiggle, this is positive so it is in line with the Euro/USD moving higher after the pullback is complete, which is in line with our market analysis of the last post which showed the same, short term intraday pullback, but we should see some more upside and one of the sign posts will almost certainly be a break above the IWM/Russell 2000's range on the upside.

 The ES (S&P Futures) 1 min chart from the European open at the green arrow to present, there's some congestion in this area intraday, but it doesn't look that bad or as bad as the NASDAQ intraday.

 The 5 min chart of ES which I have been watching ever since it turned very strong late last Tuesday, continues to deteriorate, there is a "in line" or "Trend confirmation" move at the green arrow that supports the moves in ES, but the larger overall signal is the leading negative divergence so that is what I want to see.

 The 15 min chart shows the same, overall deterioration in to this move that became apparent late last Tuesday, it doesn't mean the move is over, just that it's not likely to change any of our of trend table expectations.

 Finally the 30 min ES chart that shows where the strength appeared last week very suddenly and how in to higher prices we have seen deterioration suggesting distribution in to higher prices and not endangering our trend table.

NASDAQ Futures

 The 1 min chart today looks a lot worse than the SPX/ES, it did see early accumulation this morning pre-market, but seems to be seeing distribution in to higher prices, this is on an intraday basis, so don't assign any more value to it than that.

 The 5 min chart shows basic continued deterioration or at least no new strengthening.

 The 15 min chart which I was watching to see if the positive leading divergence was going to deteriorate last week dis, however overnight there is a positive divergence that formed, it is harder to see on a 5 min chart because overnight volume is so much lower than regular hours, but on a 15 min chart each volume bar is bigger and this easier to make out a trend, so there's no concern about the 5 min vs the 15 min, the only concern is that we see deterioration of this too as we did last week, as mentioned above, I think it has to do with sector rotation from Financials to Tech.

The 30 min chart is in line with the trend and doesn't raise any concerns.