Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators are telling a story just as the other updates and assets we look at and they are telling the same story, but in some cases it seems to be with more urgency, as if the probability of the downside move is much closer.

 Commodities vs the SPX (always green comparison symbol), they usually move together, commodities aren't buying something with this move in the SPX and I think a big part of it may be the Euro being able to hold up much longer.

 This is commodities again, but in this case, I replaced the SPX (green) with the Euro ETF/FXE, you can see commodities which are a risk asset and should move generally with the SPX are not.

 The $AUD began to give a divergent signal vs the SPX last week and the currency continues to remain divergent with the SPX, this is my favorite currency to use as a leading indicator.

 Here's the $AUD intraday, you can see it looks like the divergence with the $AUD weaker than the SPX at the a.m. highs brought the SPX down.

 This is the Euro ETF, this should move with the SPX (green), this is a significant negative divergence that does not support market health or strength on any move up.

 Here they are intraday, again they should track each other fairly closely, the Euro is much weaker than the SPX, which has to cause me to wonder how much true strength is left in the SPX from last Tuesday's divergences.

 Yields are like a magnet for the market and they are at a significant negative divergence, this divergence is more along the lines of what I expect in the market on the downside move.

CREDIT

 The all important credit, again High Yield Credit (a risk asset) is negatively divergence with the SPX again, credit seemingly doesn't trust this move up.

 High Yield Corporate Credit is also negatively divergent, it also doesn't want to follow the SPX higher.

Even Junk Credit is negatively divergent and unwilling to follow the market higher.