AAPL Update

This is a very tricky one right now, actually everything is tricky because even as you may have seen at the bottom of the previous post (showing a SPY negative divergence in to QE3), there was still volatility, there was still a knee-jerk reaction to the upside and even though it was ultimately the wrong reaction as these almost always are, for a trade like many have going in AAPL (bounce), this behavior could be very material.  Therefore AAPL is tricky, but we can only use the evidence we have now, we can't make predictions and it's difficult even to assign probabilities with something like a possible QE4 being announced (even if you are right like we were last time, there's still enough volatility and knee-jerk price movements to change the nature of short term trades).

For now we aren't going to worry about the F_E_D and just look at AAPL, remember there are a couple of trends that we have been paying attention to in AAPL so I'll try to distinguish them from each other on the following charts.

 AAPL 1 min has a negative divergence on the open and an overall leading negative position.

 2 min is the same.

 5 min is actually the same

 As is the 10 min, they all look a little different, but all the signals are exactly the same through these timeframes.

I have been watching what I think is an AAPL base or support area that has been put together since about late September and I think there's a very high probability that there's a strong AAPL long, however this move being a part of that larger base, my opinion has been AAPL will have to make a new regional low before we get to that longer term long position.

For the bounce trade a lot of members took the trade with Calls on Monday and closed it yesterday with a great result, I'm not sure how many remain in that trade. The short term charts don't look that impressive and I'd say we are setting up for that move down soon. Of course F_O_M_C volatility could send AAPL higher , but I can't predict that unless I see some evidence of that which I don't see yet.

 15 min chart is showing a longer term positive being put together in the area, but if price came down as the charts above suggest it will soon and 3C remained positive we would actually have a bigger positive divergence, a stronger positive divergence and it would fit nicely in to the longer term trend I mentioned above that we have been following since September, it's just below...

AAPL 30 min with a relative positive divergence in to the lows, a leading positive divergence and even on this last move down it has stayed in leading positive position. A move in AAPL to new lows would not damage this chart and would likely put AAPL that much closer to the larger upside move represented here at this (I'll call it a "base") base or area of support/accumulation that stretches from at least from October to the present.

The QQQ has a very similar chart on the same timeframe as do several other important charts, but realize this is a longer term trend, it has taken a longer amount of time to put together and when finished (which may end with a downside head fake move-our new low?) should support a decent uptrend of some consequence.

As for AAPL's primary trend, I think there's too much damage and ultimately despite any strong counter-trend rallies that may appear, AAPL's destiny is more solidified than ever on the bearish side. Once again though, that is a trend even further out and a bridge that we will address when we reach it.

I am going to go RADIO SILENT unless something pressing or very important pops up (including emails) so I can pay close attention to the market and look for any signs of a leak as the F_O_M_C statement is only about an hour away and I think that's where all of my concentration needs to be at this moment to best serve all of the wolf pack.