TICK Data

A Quick look at leading indicators shows the SPX actually more negative than most leading indicators, I don't really like that a lot, but there are a few scenarios in which it could work for our trend expectations which include the market reversing from the recent move up to a sharp move down. Furthermore it may be the SPX is moving faster than the leading indicators, I won't be able to say until the close.

Here's a look at TICK data, it shows the sentiment and emotion in the market when there's uncertainty and emotional extremes.

There are all today & 1 minute, the TICK is all NYSE stocks that are advancing minus those that are declining and that gives you your value, in an advance in the market the TICK should rise and decline with the market declining.

 First the full day with the SPY in white (the white trendline = 0, yellow=+1000 and red= minus 1000).

We'll take a closer look at today below.

 The read arrow is the open, on the open the TICK was VERY mellow, it looks like trepidation  as the TICK bounces between a VERY mellow +250 to -250 which is almost unheard of for any amount of time, VERY neutral before the F_O_M_C. As the F_O_M_C occurred to the right at 12:15 we see some volatility as price rises or starts to and we see almost -1000 on the downside and over +1000 on the upside.

The second half of the day... Again, 12:15 volatility in the TICK data picks up and we see +1000 readings as the SPY moves up, these are not very strong extremes for a move up, then around 1 p.m. when the SPY is still near the intraday highs the TICK diverges and is running between + and - 250 again, it's not seeing enough stocks participate to hold the level as traders are nervous before Bernie speaks. As the press conference takes place we see some initial moves to downside extremes at -1100 and -1250, we even see -1350 and nearly every time Bernie talks about policy action "Within the context of price stability" meaning if inflation picks up, policy can change and that is what the market didn't like at the press conference September 13th as well as today, that policy can change according to fluid data rather than have set dates that are firm.