Wednesday, December 12, 2012

What I see so far

I don't see a smoking gun. For the most part the averages have been moving up in to weakness which was the move that started yesterday which was expected (think IWM range that needed to be broken), so the deterioration in the averages seems normal as far as my market trend expectations.

Short term smoking guns in today's 3C trade...As far as the averages go, there's the kind of deterioration we saw yesterday, nothing is standing out as unusual today specifically unless you want to count yesterday and today, but those signals and deterioration is pretty much as expected. I don't see evidence there of a leak.

Credit- High Yield Corporate is pretty much in line with the SPX today, nothing unusual standing out there, I will say the longer term trend in HYG and 3C underlying trade has been negative, it looks like there's been quite a bit of distribution and HYG should see a downside move sooner than later, intraday there's a slight positive, but nothing too interesting.

High Yield Credit has diverged with the SPX in price, but that's something that has been in place, no smoking gun there.

Treasuries- TLT has seen a few timeframes go pretty leading positive intraday today, this could be related to F_E_D buying in that area, it's also a bit sporadic and not consistent through timeframes, but where it is strong today, it is strong. This can also be considered a flight to safety trade so that could also be part of this, money perhaps moving from risk to a safe haven.

Gold- I mentioned yesterday that GLD looks pretty good in here, this is an asset that has historically benefitted from QE as the F_E_D dilutes the value of the dollar, people move to gold to preserve wealth.

Volatility-I don't see anything that is suggesting direction in volatility like VXX / UVXY. There was some deterioration in XIV not too long ago, which would be market negative, but that has mellowed out since.


 So far I don't see a smoking gun, I'll be watching knee jerk reactions and seeing if there's anything there that we can use to our advantage or that gives us an edge with regard to analysis. please remember that the statement is only 1 part of the day's volatility, Bernie's comments later around 2:15 typically are also important, the day of QE3 announced, Bernie's press conference saw a question that topped the market that moment which gave us an idea of what it was really worried about.

I'll keep watching, if anything pops up, I'll post immediately.



No comments: