AAPL Update

With a 20+% gain in the AAPL Feb. 505 calls (which just turned green yesterday) and the 520's having moved from significantly down to much closer to break-even, I'm tempted to close at least some of the 505's, but the idea behind the AAPL move was (and this is gut) to get demand moving in AAPL as I'm sure there are still numerous hedgies that want out and they need that demand, it would also get the Q's above the resistance level and it very well could be a downside catalyst as it was at the earnings pop of April 25th, except this time there's more funds trying to fit out the same small exit all at once.

I've looked at the charts for AAPL several times this morning and I'm thinking it's probably better to hold for now and this is not based on any distribution activity, it's based on the size of the positive divergences, the same ones that hinted at an AAPL and QQQ move up, they are of a certain size and I'd expect there to be a certain move that correlates with the size.

Here are some charts...

 Here's the price pattern that everything has been rotating around, you may recall yesterday I pointed out the Crazy Ivan shakeout. We have a gap just above and it seems to me to get an emotional reaction, which is what these moves are usually all about, we'd need to see some more volatility in AAPL. I want to put out the caveat that I have no idea how long this could last- this afternoon maybe? Tomorrow? A day or two? More? I'm leaning toward being out before earnings, I don't think sentiment toward  AAPL is favorable with regard to doing bigger and better things than they have already done. We also know that almost every gap up in aAPL is immediately faded, I think these are hedgies taking advantage of those moves independently and not as a group.

 The 1 min, I wanted to point out that this is almost ALWAYS the case, the price area where a positive divergence like this first starts may be higher and we see more accumulation in to lower prices, but in nearly every case with 3C, that first area of positive (or vice versa) divergence is almost always surpassed by price. The point being, even if you bought the very first sign of a divergence and then the stock went on to move against your purchase, but continues to accumulate, almost every time price eventually moves above that first positive divergence area which is represented here by red trendlines.

 The 3 min

 We see the negative around the turn of the year and then a relative positive followed by a leading positive. Again note how the divergence has accrued on the longer chart (5 min), this is why I say, "When in doubt, go to the longer charts for the trend".

And the 10 min chart, also leading positive, so these are pretty big accumulation areas, it makes me think there's more in AAPL. However to give some perspective, look at this 10 min positive within the overall long term 10 min chart's trend.

There's plenty of positive readings in the near term, but I wanted to balance the perspective out so you understand that this could end nearly as fast as it started.