Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Highest Margin Leverage Versus Stock Market Cap Since 1929

I'm going to let someone else do the writing tonight, this is from the Stock Trader's Almanac Website, an excellent book to have handy (make sure you buy the current year-2013).

The title says it all, here's the article which is very much in line with last night's post which referenced the record high net long positioning.


Here's a little teaser:

The venerable Mr. Newman goes on over the next 5 pages to show how this compares to 1987 and other high points. He discusses, how valuation metrics have changed, what High Frequency Trading has done to the market, the absence of bearish sentiment, the risk in owning Amazon, among other observations and warns on the last page that: 

We believe stocks are putting in a major high. A correction of at least 20% should be expected. Worse? Quite possible.” 

No comments: