Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Early Leading Indicators/ Continuing Market Update

An early look at Leading Indicators isn't inspiring much confidence in the market here or (as of now) that there will be any further rotation like we saw today in the NDX.

High Yield, High Yield Corporate and Junk credit aren't doing anything, they're as flat as yesterday. The Euro is adding to it's negative dislocation from the SPX even with the SPX flat. The Aussie is turning to the downside, Yields have made a low below yesterday's and are still the most disconnected and commodities are flat with the SPX for the most part.

The $USD did make a move higher earlier off its gap down opening, it's in a bit of a holding pattern right now. The Euro as mentioned above did the exact opposite.

USO is still very much of interest.

This is one thing that may be one of the final nails as the Q's have been the only average not to break resistance, there are reasons why this is important even (or especially) for a bearish reversal/market.

I kind of suspected this might happen right in front of AAPL earnings. I keep thinking about the very obvious rotation in to Tech along with a clear positive divergence in AAPL right before earnings and AAPL and Tech gapped up on earnings and then sold off from there for quite a while, the current situation keeps reminding me of that period.

The NYSE TICK, although not ultimately supportive of the market yesterday as pointed out yesterday and witnessed by today's early lack of follow through, is notably tamer today than yesterday.

Beyond structural negative divergences in 3C...
 like this longer term leading negative 5 min divergence and others, there are some specific moves today that are interesting and would be bothersome if I was counting on the market to move higher such as the ones below...

The SPY 2 min was weak yesterday, but it's added a new dimension to that today and we're still early in the day.

 Beyond yesterday's move in the DIA 2 min, there's this added leading negative in to higher prices.

 The IWM looks particularly scary here as it flattens out and rounds over with the leading negative 5 min added this early.

Even the QQQ that we expected to see price strength today is not moving much and has put in this leading negative 1 min today. A 1 min negative divergence can lead to a lateral consolidation like this, but the depth of the leading seems to indicate more than that.



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