I was going to post on how ugly the IWM looks, there certainly doesn't seem to be any market average that is the recipient today of bullish underlying trade like the Q's yesterday. Since the IWM (Russell 2000) should be the leader of any and all risk on moves (with a few caveats like an AAPL advance, obviously the NASDAQ is likely to lead), keeping an eye on the average makes a lot of sense and today I've been keeping a sharp eye on it as it looks like the worst performing average, there are some truly scary charts there, but I chose to put that post off for something that may be more important.
You remember what CONTEXT looked like yesterday?
If not you can go back and review it here.
Our own version, Leading Indicators also looked bad yesterday, today it's worse.
Commodities are retreating again today, a bit sharper than yesterday.
High Yield Credit has gone nowhere since yesterday, it failed to follow the SPX and it just moved in to the red on the day.
High Yield Corporate is the scary one because of its liquidity, it's used most often, yesterday it was totally flat rather than confirming the SPX move higher, it started flat today, but is now in decline.
Junk credit is the same story and just starting to move toward decline.
As far as CONTEXT for ES goes...
This is just as bad as yesterday, there's been no improvement as the difference between the model and ES is still more than -12, yesterday at the end of day and around 8 pm, this is what CONTEXT's difference looked like...
At the close yesterday the CONTEXT/ES differential was at -10, it's worse now!
Around 7:30 last night it was at -12, now we are even deeper than that. Bad news for the market.
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