Would You Look at That

This is exactly why I keep saying I'm not ready to load up the truck, the signals are ugly, but the highest probabilities are still a move in the SPY above resistance before a reversal (that goes for any average that has clear resistance).

 The white trend line is the target, we are $0.15 away, but really there's no telling how high it will move above that range once longs step in to buy a new higher high, which is the entire point of this move, but for different reasons-to open up demand and higher prices to be able to sell and short in to and also set a bull trap which snowballs downside momentum on a reversal.


Meanwhile the 2 min chart is worse and worse. Remember that large accounts with large positions have to sell those positions or buy them in smaller pieces otherwise they drive price against themselves just based on very basic supply and demand, but it is more complicated than that. Market makers, Specialists, even retail traders will front run any order they can make out, so it takes time for these large positions to be accumulated or distributed.

The worst fear of institutional money trying to enter or exit a large position is that the predatory HFT's will ping them and uncover their order which is known as an "Iceberg" as only a small part is visible above the surface and as with an Iceberg, the greatest mass is unseen below the water. Once these predatory HFTs ping enough and discover an Iceberg, they front run it as they are faster than just about anyone else out there and the institution ends up paying significantly more for their position or gets a horrible fill as the HFTs become the buyers and sellers for the institution and move price against the institution.

The point is, we are close to the area and the signals are what they should be to confirm a head fake move, which is what we want to use to enter new shorts or exit existing longs.