I try very hard to bring you what I see, I know some of my friends get annoyed with me because I look at a situation from both sides and look for the truth which is usually somewhere in the middle whereas they prefer to be 100% one side or the other. I suppose it's the same with the market, you know how I feel about the market as a whole, but I'm not going to ignore bullish looking opportunities, even though it's a lot harder for them to do well in a negative market environment, but if it's true, it's true-I'm not going to let market analysis creep in to stock specific analysis.
The bottom line...
We have been following RIM for a LONG time and we've had a good feeling about RIM for a long time, we've traded RIM successfully numerous times and some of you have been involved in RIM for a long time.
So taking a quick look at the new BBRY, I'll say, there's something there as we thought there would be even when it was still moving down. I personally wasn't impressed with the unveiling of their new handset, but that may have just been the presentation. Someone likes BBRY longer term as do I, I just wouldn't be willing to chase it up here.
I start as usual with a long term 5 day chart and notice a capitulation event in 2011 (these always in my experience lead to further downside and sometimes quite sharp, but they also tend to lead to a re-start of the 4 stages at stage 1 base. There's a huge change of character in volume recently in a low volume market generally speaking and there's a LARGE rounding base, so large I don't think there's any way it's anything other than real/organic.
The very long term 2 day 3C chart (as well as daily and even longer multi-day charts) is in a VERY strong leading positive divergence and although I almost never look at BOP at the bottom, it's picking up on all of the flows as well, which it is usually not that sensitive to in my experience.
a 4-day X-Over Screen works best for RIM/BBRY , there's a not too distant long signal that is confirmed, the usual first pullback to the 10-bar yellow moving average has happened, typically the second pullback is deeper to the blue 22 bar so again, like CHK, this would be a nice pullback candidate to add to existing longs or to establish new ones. I'm not inclined to ever chase on a day like today; there's a difference between a stock that will do well and a trade in that same stock that will do well, 1+1 doesn't always add up to 2 in this scenario.
The 4-day Trend Channel held the long term downtrend with a -72% gain for a short position (conservatively) and so far a +77% gain for a long, the current stop is at $11.10, the current 22 bar on a 4 day chart is at $11.15, but the moving average will rise even with price pulling back toward it, but the Trend Channel is more likely to stay where it is as a consolidation is under way, that would mean the pullback to the 22 bar may hit at $12.50 whole the Trend Channel stop remains around $11.25 or so.
The 30 min chart was totally in line with the trend, even leading it until recently with a relative negative divergence.
The 2 min chart shows a sharp leading negative divergence at recent highs and price pretty much in line short term.
The 15 min chart also shows a relative negative divergence so I'd be inclined to wait to see if BBRY can pullback to a more reasonable level, if I were long I'd have at least a trailing stop and consider at least taking some partial profits and looking to replace those shares and then some with the profits at a lower price point.
All in all, I like this one a lot too, although I'm not so sure about their phones. Another company that seems to have been turned around by the departure of the dual CEOs.
No comments:
Post a Comment