Monday, February 4, 2013

Market Update

Well those multiple timeframe negatives got the best of the SPY and DIA 1 min positive that was building, which from a probabilities standpoint and the strength of each of the timeframes really shouldn't be a surprise.

In the near term ONLY, price is starting to catch own to the 2, 3 and 5 min leading negative divergences to move to a position that is less leading negative and more "in line", that's a slightly better transition, although it's not positive, but it is one step closer.

Guess what else is one-step closer? Continuing volatility, the SPY's gain from Friday of +1.03% has already seen a loss of -.94% so far today, this is certainly volatility picking up and the longer term 2, 3, and 5 min charts are deeply negative.

The EUR/USD still has a 1 min positive divergence, ES is moving toward a 1 min relative positive as is the NASDAQ futures, but you can probably smell the rotting smell of the charts starting to break through the shiny thin veneer of the last month now can't you?

So it's really all about positioning, I'm not fond of taking profits in established shorts on a 1-day move unless they were trades set up in that way.

Early losses like this are usually hard to sustain through the entire day so don't be surprised to see more volatility, but if something breaks here, it's going to be a significant break (meaning if this downside momentum keeps up all day-something has really broken).

I'm going to browse some other indications and opportunities, with this volatility it creates some nice short term opportunities like last week as mentioned last night.



No comments: