Monday, February 4, 2013

Would you you rather be Rajoy, Monti, Draghi or the electrical contractor for the SuperDome?

I pick the electrical Contractor for the SuperDome, at least that will pass in a week.

The news is political turmoil is pressuring European markets, but this is all well known by now. What is new is European Investor confidence at 19 month highs as Spain is down 5.7 and Italy down 6.7% as they see the biggest 4-day plunge in the last 6 months, something we saw late last week starting.  The Euro is also down fairly well, about 150 pips.

Guess what preceded the move down in stocks to the worst performance in 6 months on Spanish political and Italian banking scandals? European Credit! I'm sure it's easier for CNBC to just call it all political.

ES and NQ look roughly the same, no big signals there, but there's some slight 3C relief in the EUR/USD, so after a night heading lower in futures, the customary opening bell reversal shouldn't be too surprising, it's what happens in the afternoon that counts, maybe our recent longs from late last week will make some money before things start to turn real ugly.

 ES falling apart after the European open, pretty much in line right now, but...


The EUR/USD has a positive divergence after falling significantly since Friday, that may help risk early on.

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