Early on, the risk sentiment looks to be pretty much confined to equities, at least as far as CONTEXT's ES model goes, which has been hitting deeper extremes of dislocation between risk assets' performance vs S&P Futures performance.
CONTEXT is more important in regular hours as more markets are open than it is overnight, in any case a -14 reading as the model is significantly lower than ES, the model more or less gives a fair value for ES based on other risk assets that typically move together in a risk on move. What this tells us is that those other risk assets are not following ES/stocks.
The ES 1 min intraday divergence is a bit worse than pre-market.
The ES 5 min chart has a nice divergence, if this were near the end of day I'd be looking at a weekly SPY put for tomorrow.
NASDAQ futures 5 min were positive overnight, but they too are in a position that I'd be looking at a QQQ weekly put if we were closer to the end of day.
The 1 min intraday NQ chart.
I won't bother with the charts yet, but I'll update our Leading Indicators/Risk Assets.
Credit in the HY Corp is underperforming, so is Junk Credit and HY credit, HY Bonds (HIO) and Yields are underperforming. Commodities are underperforming.
As for currencies, the Euro isn't providing support, the $US Dollar is a bit stronger so it's out of line with the market, actually the market is the one out of line.
The only supportive metric at all is some slight weakness in the Yen, but not enough to make this a market I would trust for a minute.
SPY in green vs the Yen in red, the Yen is a bit weaker, but look at former weakness last week and where the SPY was.
It looks like there's no support at all in this market, perhaps it's just a little front running before the minutes tomorrow while they can as the last minutes really upset the market.
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