Thursday, February 14, 2013

GDP

All this week it's ben about the Yen, maybe last night's Q4 GDP release is part of the reason the Japanese version of honest Abe has been hellbent on destroying their currency? 

After a 5 year running triple dip recession, there was hope that the print last night would come in above zero, it didn't, instead it came in at .4% annualized contraction and a .1% Q/Q basis, the exact opposite of expectations (the same except positive, not negative).

This makes the 3rd consecutive contractionary print and can yo guess why? I already hinted at it this week, there was a 14% drop in exports, remember those little rocky chain of uninhabited islands China and Japan have been fighting over which has led to Japanese goods being shunned by a very nationalistic Chinese population (at least when it comes to Japan).

Next up France reported Q4 GDP at a -.3% drop on consensus of -.2% which was down from a +0.1% increase

Next, Germany, whose GDP also missed expectations of a -0.5% drop, declining from a +0.2% increase to a -0.6% drop.

Followed by  Italy with a -0.9%  drop vs consensus of -0.6% and a previous -0.2%

Oh Heck!!!! 
 Portugal (-1.8%, Exp. -1.0%, last -0.9%), Greece (down -6.0%, previously -6.7%), Hungary (-0.9%, Exp. -0.3%), Austria (-0.2%, down from 0.1%), Cyprus (-3.1%, last -2.0%), get the picture?

Eurozone GDP on the whole dropped -.6% on expectations of -.4%. We haven't sen a drop like that since the first quarter of 2009!

Bottom line, recession everywhere whether double, triple or quadruple dip.

The Futures?

 ES Futures

NASDAQ Futures


The EUR/USD...
was already moving down from Japan when the Eurozone GDPS started to hit as the European markets open at 3 a.m. at the green arrow, then the ECB came out and added fuel to the fire by saying that "negative interest rates are always possible", I guess that's one of Draghi's men.




No comments: